If the jobs number comes stronger than expected, bonds could sell off and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, currently at 4.375%, could breach 4.42%, a level that many bond-market participants think would lead to a drop in mortgage-refinancing activity, according to Mr. Reynolds.
Any decline in refinancing activity would prompt mortgage companies, which hold Treasury bonds to limit risk, to sell -- pushing yields, and thus mortgage rates, higher still.
In contrast, a weaker-than-expected report would act as a balm on the bond market. But it would be bad news for an already skittish stock market.
Friday, October 07, 2005
WSJ - The Jobs-Report Job: